Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
